18. aug 2017, 09:17
#255431
Jeg overvejer stærkt at købe en Oled skærm i år, men jeg kom pludselig i tanke om at vi går snart ind i 4 kvartal i år og de store messer med 2018 nyhederne er ikke længe væk.
Jeg ved godt at man kan blive ved med at vente og vente på næste års store opgraderinger, derfor synes jeg det kunne blive en god tråd til at diskuterer om man skal vente eller købe i år
En brugen Stama fra avforums skriver ret detaljeret hvad han tror der vil ske i næste år og de kommende år på Oled fronten.
Ret overbevisne og med referencer for hans påstande.
"My previous posts on the matter: 1, 2, 3.
Since I don't really have time right now, I will only post a short summary of new developments since then:
- LG currently (2017) has a capacity of 60000 large size sheets / month [1]
- Guangzhou 8.5-Gen plant [1]
- 8.5-Gen (2,200mm X 2,500mm) large-size substrates
- 60000 large size Gen 8.5 substrates capacity
- built in 2018
- mass production ramp-up during H1 2019
- Paju 10.5-Gen P10 plant [1]
- 10.5-Gen (2,940mm X 3,370mm) large-size substrates
- for now 30000 large sheets / month is the target
- equipment orders and setting up the equipment in the next 15 - 18 months (2017 07 27+)
- testing after that during 6 - 12 months
- first they will try to validate stability of Gen 10.5 backplane technology
- second, validate mass production and mother glass production stability for oxide backplanes
- mass production starts after backplane stability and validation for deposition
- before producing OLEDs they will use the oxide backplane and make LCDs while testing for OLEDs
- therefore, mass production starts in H2 2019 (best case scenario) or 2020 (more likely)
- based on large-size OLED demand, they might convert some LCD fabs to OLED if there will be a need [1]
- during 2018, the blue fluorescent OLED emitter used in its large size OLED panels might get replaced by a blue TADF emitter made by Cynora, if Cynora's plans to be able to commercialize this emitter by the end of 2017 work out; phosphorescent materials are four times more efficient than fluorescent materials in converting electrical energy into light; red and green are already phosphorescent materials; Cynora has a financing round going on, and LG will commit some million USDs to it [2] [3]
My estimates:
- previously, I said that it is hard to believe the new P10 Paju plant will start production next year; seems I was right, 2020 is the most likely target according to what LG said during the Q2 Earnings Call
- no printing process, it's still going to be deposition in the P10 fab; this is not a surprise really, people already complain OLED brightness is not on par with LED LCDs, so it makes no sense to switch to printing while the soluble emitters have lower efficiency, therefore lower brightness
- they will build a new fab in China, based on the same 8.5-Gen deposition tech they are currently employing in their existing fabs; that's why they expect that fab to be built and start mass production before the P10 fab does, even though they start construction of the Guangzhou fab later
- since no new lines will come online next year, everything will be same as this year with regard to volumes and panel sizes: same number of panels, and the 77 inches will be just as few and will stay expensive
- there might be either a slight increase in max brightness or in the ABL response next year, due to the change of the blue emitter; however, this might not pan out like this - spectral plots of current panels show that the intensity of blue is already several times that of red and green, so an even higher blue intensity is not what was missing; unless "higher brightness" means Vivid mode with a 12000K color temperature (just like with the 1000 nits this year), there needs to be a way to make the intensity of the other colors higher; don't know if this can be done just by changing the color filters stack again (like it was done in 2016) or not; there's also the issue that Cynora is nowhere close to mass production levels, so if something happens next year, it will be a phased introduction all along the year (again, same thing happened when they changed the emitters they use and the color filters stack for 2016, they phased its introduction starting with 2015).
- the most likely "new tech" we will see next year is going to be some partial HDMI 2.1 support, as long as the final specs (are they finalized already or not yet?) will match some of the stuff the TV manufacturers are already designing in their electronics
References:
[1] LG Display's (LPL) on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
[2] Reports suggest LGD and SDC to participate in Cynora's latest financing round
[3] OLED TV gets stronger ... LG Display, introduction of new materials"
http://www.avforums.com/threads/oled-future.2109870
Hvad tænker i om den nærmeste fremtid for Oled? er 2018 oled modeller værd at vente på?
Jeg ved godt at man kan blive ved med at vente og vente på næste års store opgraderinger, derfor synes jeg det kunne blive en god tråd til at diskuterer om man skal vente eller købe i år
En brugen Stama fra avforums skriver ret detaljeret hvad han tror der vil ske i næste år og de kommende år på Oled fronten.
Ret overbevisne og med referencer for hans påstande.
"My previous posts on the matter: 1, 2, 3.
Since I don't really have time right now, I will only post a short summary of new developments since then:
- LG currently (2017) has a capacity of 60000 large size sheets / month [1]
- Guangzhou 8.5-Gen plant [1]
- 8.5-Gen (2,200mm X 2,500mm) large-size substrates
- 60000 large size Gen 8.5 substrates capacity
- built in 2018
- mass production ramp-up during H1 2019
- Paju 10.5-Gen P10 plant [1]
- 10.5-Gen (2,940mm X 3,370mm) large-size substrates
- for now 30000 large sheets / month is the target
- equipment orders and setting up the equipment in the next 15 - 18 months (2017 07 27+)
- testing after that during 6 - 12 months
- first they will try to validate stability of Gen 10.5 backplane technology
- second, validate mass production and mother glass production stability for oxide backplanes
- mass production starts after backplane stability and validation for deposition
- before producing OLEDs they will use the oxide backplane and make LCDs while testing for OLEDs
- therefore, mass production starts in H2 2019 (best case scenario) or 2020 (more likely)
- based on large-size OLED demand, they might convert some LCD fabs to OLED if there will be a need [1]
- during 2018, the blue fluorescent OLED emitter used in its large size OLED panels might get replaced by a blue TADF emitter made by Cynora, if Cynora's plans to be able to commercialize this emitter by the end of 2017 work out; phosphorescent materials are four times more efficient than fluorescent materials in converting electrical energy into light; red and green are already phosphorescent materials; Cynora has a financing round going on, and LG will commit some million USDs to it [2] [3]
My estimates:
- previously, I said that it is hard to believe the new P10 Paju plant will start production next year; seems I was right, 2020 is the most likely target according to what LG said during the Q2 Earnings Call
- no printing process, it's still going to be deposition in the P10 fab; this is not a surprise really, people already complain OLED brightness is not on par with LED LCDs, so it makes no sense to switch to printing while the soluble emitters have lower efficiency, therefore lower brightness
- they will build a new fab in China, based on the same 8.5-Gen deposition tech they are currently employing in their existing fabs; that's why they expect that fab to be built and start mass production before the P10 fab does, even though they start construction of the Guangzhou fab later
- since no new lines will come online next year, everything will be same as this year with regard to volumes and panel sizes: same number of panels, and the 77 inches will be just as few and will stay expensive
- there might be either a slight increase in max brightness or in the ABL response next year, due to the change of the blue emitter; however, this might not pan out like this - spectral plots of current panels show that the intensity of blue is already several times that of red and green, so an even higher blue intensity is not what was missing; unless "higher brightness" means Vivid mode with a 12000K color temperature (just like with the 1000 nits this year), there needs to be a way to make the intensity of the other colors higher; don't know if this can be done just by changing the color filters stack again (like it was done in 2016) or not; there's also the issue that Cynora is nowhere close to mass production levels, so if something happens next year, it will be a phased introduction all along the year (again, same thing happened when they changed the emitters they use and the color filters stack for 2016, they phased its introduction starting with 2015).
- the most likely "new tech" we will see next year is going to be some partial HDMI 2.1 support, as long as the final specs (are they finalized already or not yet?) will match some of the stuff the TV manufacturers are already designing in their electronics
References:
[1] LG Display's (LPL) on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
[2] Reports suggest LGD and SDC to participate in Cynora's latest financing round
[3] OLED TV gets stronger ... LG Display, introduction of new materials"
http://www.avforums.com/threads/oled-future.2109870
Hvad tænker i om den nærmeste fremtid for Oled? er 2018 oled modeller værd at vente på?